How To Make Sense Of Russia’s War On Ukraine

Putin wants democracy to fail, not only in Ukraine but across the West too, Anne Applebaum writes. “He wants to put so much strain on Western and democratic institutions, especially the European Union and NATO, that they break up. He wants to keep dictators in power wherever he can, in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran. He wants to undermine America, to shrink American influence, to remove the power of the democracy rhetoric that so many people in his part of the world still associate with America. He wants America itself to fail.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/04/ukraine-russia-war-questions-answers/627596/

What Vladimir Putin misunderstood about Ukrainians

Before the invasion, did you struggle to understand Ukraine? Could you place it on a map or picture its people? Perhaps it existed on the periphery of your imagination, a bleak suburb of Greater Russia, which Vladimir Putin claims doesn’t really exist. You wouldn’t be alone. Until recently I had little comprehension of the country – and I was born there.

It’s easy to see why Ukraine confuses people. To the uninformed outsider, it confounds all ideas of what makes a nation. Most people are casually bilingual. It contains many histories simultaneously: the Russian, Soviet and Austro-Hungarian empires, Poland, Romania and, of course, Ukraine itself. This lattice of historical narratives has made many in the West feel as though the country is not quite real.

Now people are more clued up. The world has found its hero nation. Its Jewish president, a one-time comedian who matured into a younger, more empathetic Churchill. The elderly women taunting Russian soldiers. The hipsters picking up machine guns. The distraught yet articulate mothers with their sparkling children sheltering underground. The beauty blogger on Instagram bombed in a maternity ward.

Ukrainians have reminded us what freedom means – a word that for many in rich democracies had long ago curdled into platitudes. The resilience of the population has impressed the West and surprised the Kremlin. It shouldn’t have. For the past few years I’ve been trying to unlock the secret of Ukrainian identity by talking to Ukrainians. Through my research project, Arena, based originally at the LSE and now at Johns Hopkins University, I’ve worked with Ukrainian journalists and sociologists to find ways of strengthening democracy. My team has interviewed thousands of adults across the country. Our fieldwork shows that the response to Russia’s invasion has deep roots in Ukrainian history.

https://www.economist.com/1843/2022/04/04/what-vladimir-putin-misunderstood-about-ukrainians

Perspective


I estimate the chances of WW III starting to be pretty high. At this rate I can’t see Putin slowing down, and he is at war with the free world. Ukraine is fighting on behalf of all democracies. Yes, the West/America is helping but it is the bare minimum, in my view.

‘I’m not scared of war any more’: Death and the Penguin author Andrey Kurkov on life in Kyiv

When asked what we can do to help Ukraine, his first thought is to recommend nonfiction. “Find out more about Ukraine. Read about our history: Serhii Plokhy’s The Gates of Europe; Anne Applebaum’s Red Famine; Timothy Snyder’s Bloodlands. It’s really important to understand the difference between Russia and Ukraine. If you really want to know about Ukraine’s history and why this is happening, read those books.”

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/apr/05/im-not-scared-of-war-any-more-death-and-the-penguin-author-andrey-kurkov-on-life-in-kyiv

If Ukraine had the money can it purchase the weapons it needs … ?

I know I have picked on the Ukrainian Oligarchs before. I think they are all a bunch of parasites, and I wonder how much they are doing to help the country from where they took everything. The key word is “take”, because that is what they do. Take, take, take. What they don’t do is create. No jobs, no role models, no wealth distribution. And I am sure that when the war is over, they will be the first to cause problems. Perhaps I am wrong though. I hope I am. But enough about them.

Let’s turn our attention to the famous billionaires. You know, the ones that are always in the headlines. The ones with their space race and all. Why aren’t they helping more. Bill Gates, for example, has a lot to say about human suffering when it comes to malaria, but not when it comes to genocide. Perhaps I am just angry and confused. I am no saint either, and I could do more to help people. I do help a lot of people but I could do more. We could all do more. When it comes to Ukraine though my gut feeling is that the billionaires could do a whole lot more. Not that they owe Ukraine anything, but if you think this is a war about Ukraine and Russia then I would say you are wrong. This is about good and evil, and if we don’t help to stop this evil then we are all going to be damned.

The world is being tested here. Humanity is in the spotlight, and I think we are failing. And yes, I am over simplifying and yes I am naive. So here is my thinking. If Ukraine had the money, then can’t they simply buy the weapons they are begging for? How does this even work.

I also think that it is becoming open season for dictators. Yes, this evil is spreading. If the world doesn’t make more of a stand soon, and help Ukraine end this nightmare, it could easily escalate and before we know it we are going to be heading into WW III.

Treading water

I have been swimming a bit at my brother’s house here in JHB. It is not winter yet, so the water is not freezing, but it has been cold. I am told that a cold swim does wonders for trauma. It certainly wakes me up.

I have been feeling quite unproductive this past month. I know I am always hard on myself so I should probably not worry about treading water for a while. Marta tells me that all her friends back in Ukraine have the same feeling. And my friends still in Kyiv are saying similar things too. It is hard to focus. The past month has been an up and down roller coaster of emotions.

I am always so busy. Now, when I look back, I am not even sure what consumed my time. I am pretty sure a lot of it was just nonsense. My film friend Craig told me it sounds like I am depressed. I have never suffered from depression before, and I am not sure I am depressed. I am always so excited about life, and about all the wonder out there, and the magic we have inside. But now, when I look at the images that are being published from the towns outside of Kyiv, and what those Russian savages have done, I am just lost for words. Actually, I am just feeling lost. Wondering all the time about what is important in life. And thinking, how can this horror be happening in this day and age?!

Things sound quiet in Kyiv now. Our friend Zhanna told me that the Saturday and Sunday nights were not filled with gunshots and bomb blasts, like in the past month. For the past 5 weeks I would pray that my friends in Kyiv were all safe and ok. I miss them, and hope to see them again soon. Everyday we check to see if our apartment building is still there. It is, and everyone is ok. What an insane reality.

The one things that is keeping me sane is writing and our story telling work on the Ukraine documentary film, which we started in 2018. My film director friend Craig, and Janine and Jol, the editing wizards, are capturing and going through a ton of Zoom sessions with people currently in Ukraine, and some who have now left the country, and what we are seeing is powerful and moving.

Alec Hogg from BizNews had a conversation with me on Friday. I listened to it over the weekend. I can’t believe that any of this can be happening. If America and the West doesn’t help Ukraine more then this evil will spread, and then God help us all. The entire world may be treading water soon if this nightmare is not stopped, permanently.

What question to ask

About 10 years ago, at a film festival in Canada, I met an indie film maker from Moscow. A decent clean cut guy, a few years younger than me. We saw his film at the festival and we were impressed. I had not had much contact with this artist until recently. He pinged me when the war broke out. We got in touch over WhatsApp and he shared with me some important Russian perspectives.

I asked Mikhail the film maker if it was true that most people in Russia supported the invasion of Ukraine. I knew where Mikhail stood – he is an opened-minded good Jewish boy. He hates what is going on. And he said to me, “Ronnie, you are asking the wrong question.”

Mikhail said that Russia is a dictatorship and that just about all of society lives in permanent fear. He was suggesting that in such a system if Putin says the sky is pink, then that is what people believe. So if Putin changes the brainwashing and says “We love Ukraine” then everyone loves Ukraine. So the majority of Russians hate Ukraine because Putin hates Ukraine.

My take on things is that before the 2014 revolution in Ukraine and before Russia annexed Crimea, Russians and Ukrainians were getting along. They would holiday in each other’s countries, do business together, marry, play sports, listen to each other’s music, and so on. Most Ukrainians and most Russians have family in each other’s country. I would say that everyone was friendly. But after Putin started the war in 2014 the Ukrainians stopped trusting anything Russian. All airline flights to Russia were stopped. Russian Internet sites were blocked, TV stations were made unreachable, tourism stopped, etc. The Ukrainians were not interested in anything to do with Russia from then on, and they looked to the West more than ever. And up until the nightmare war that started just over a month ago, since 2014, Ukraine was doing good. Economic growth was healthy and the future was looking bright.

Back to the Moscow man. My film maker friend said that a more relevant question to ask Russians is, “Do you support the freedom and peace that Russia brings to Ukraine?” I guess none of us can comprehend the level of propaganda that is taking place there. They are seriously brainwashed by the evil Mr. Putin. I went on to ask Mikhail about Putin and the nuclear button. His answer was sobering. He said, “There is a bad news: he is a fanatic. And there is good news: he’s a coward.” I also don’t believe Putin will be pushing the button. The big issue is, in my view, is that the West is weak, and Putin knows this. President Biden needs to grow some balls, and quickly.

The last thing we chatted about was to do with the sanctions. Mikhail said the sanctions are a joke for now. He explained that the biggest impact from them will be with Russian middle class and creative people. He went onto say that it effects those who do not support Putin and embrace democratic ideas. “The rich Russian oligarchs and state servants like police and corrupted judges will not feel the sanctions“, Mikhail added, “And poor people who always were poor – neither will feel these sanctions.”

So, with Putin’s mass of terrified sheep nothing much will change. Mikhail ended our conversation with, “In any case sanctions will not stop this war.”

What do you stand for … ?

Values are what bind us together, apparently. I guess the question is then: what do you truly value? This war nightmare has woken me up, and what I value has been driving my recent behavior.

“If you don’t stand for something, you will fall for anything.” – Alexander Hamilton |

If you ask just about anyone now if they like Russia then I am pretty sure that their answer would be a very quick and rigid NO. Hang on, what has Russia done to you personally? But still, no one wants anything to do with them. Putin is without a doubt, pure evil.

Let’s make it a bit more personal and intimate. Let’s say that someone does something bad to me, and you are my close friend, and then the next thing I hear is that you and this guy are now doing business together, and I ask you about this and your response is, “But he has not done anything bad to me.” I am sure if they shot me with a gun then you would avoid them. So yes, I don’t get it. A guy who robs me, for example, is going to rob you too. Our values seem to be more like trends than things we actually stand for and believe in.

Perhaps one day I will publish a list of people I know that I think you should avoid. I know that shaming people by naming names would be not be cool or professional. But I am thinking about it. Fuck it. I am just tired of bullshit.

Values can’t have double standards. And it starts with the small things. All relationships that are healthy are based on mutual respect. But when one party starts to neglect you, then call it a day. I am. Perhaps it took this trauma to make me embrace the values I believe in. I simply don’t have time for people who humour me. Regardless of how long we have known each other, or what we have shared together. If you are not sincere, I don’t want you near me. Take trying to call people on the phone – if it is so hard to get a hold of someone then it reveals something about their attitude. And I can make it easy for someone with a simple text asking them when is a good time to call them. If after a few texts asking the same thing then I am calling it a day.

Through this nightmare war I have reconnected with people I lost touch with. Some I am very fond of, some not. And then there are some that are meant to be good people but not to me, and I don’t want anything more to do with them.

Another bizarre thing I have experienced in this past month is people lecturing me online about how Ukraine should be grateful, and how Biden is a good man, blah blah blah. You are entitled to your perspective and I am allowed to have my own point of view. I think that America is not helping Ukraine nearly enough. The Budapest agreement in 1994 should have been adhered to, but America does not seem to remember what was agreed to back then. And now it is more lip service than real help. So yes, I am not so fond of America and their weak President who is too chicken to call Putin’s bluff. People giving me shit online that are meant to care about me is just mind boggling. No compassion towards me personally, no empathy. Even if perhaps you are right, rather just be kind. Pure selfishness and insecurity. And again, they are meant to be people that care about me but I don’t get that sense of all. Instead they made it personal, and started to criticize me and insult me, simply because I am saying that America is weak. Wow!

This good VS evil battle is polarizing the world even more, and I will end off by saying that if Ukraine is destroyed then evil has won, and it will spread. And then good luck to all Americans and everyone else – everyone will suffer if Ukraine is allowed to disappear. Evil is like a cancer, and if not stopped, it will come and get all of us.