You can’t kick the can much further

Over 20 years ago we made an indie film called Purpose. We were trying to explore the connection between making money and making a difference. Entrepreneurs, I believe, are driven by passion and excitement to do something that they feel people will want and value. And when they get it right, they make money. Sometimes though, people forget the mission and focus only on the bottom line. These become poor businesses, even if they make buckets of cash.

Fast forward to the pandemic and the money printing extravaganza that took place over those two years, and today the world is in a situation where inflation is sky rocketing and the markets are anxious. This is the age of the day traders and the Bitcoin gurus. No one wants to work any more. Speculating, er, gambling, seems to be the the new norm. There are still are entrepreneurs out there, breaking ground, but so much bad product comes to market, especially in the tech world. This is largely because of venture capital funds that fuel these half-baked ideas. Too many things are rushed to market with unicorn tinted goggles. Purpose has taken a back seat. Profits don’t even seem to be important. Grow and flip. Who cares about the foundations. Financial engineering is the name of the game because the fundamentals are not that evident any more.

The subprime mortgage crises which erupted around 2008 in the US was never dealt with head on. Just a few slaps on the wrist and the can got kicked down the road. That mess contributed to the rapid rise in American home prices and it was the start of some serious bad shit. At some point though someone has to pay the price for all this greed. I reckon this has been on the cards for a while and it is about to come and bite us all in the ass. A serious reckoning is coming. I am surprised it has taken this long, but it is coming. I am pretty convinced of it.

There are still the constant crazy tech evaluations based on high earnings multiples. It feels like there is a big bubble that is set to deflate. I am not sure about burst, but this party can’t go on forever. The money printing has stopped, and the inflation we are experiencing globally is intense. From food prices to fuel to just about everything. It is hurting the masses.

The war in Ukraine, which makes me very sad, is a catalyst in this perfect storm. There is a lack of unity in the West and weak leadership. And dictators are having a field day. Putin has spurred them all on. The war in Ukraine may have dropped off your social media feed but what we are starting to see is that food prices and energy costs are going up and up. And this affects everyone. There are some very tough times coming to the world. The pandemic was a walk in the park. The biggest disease in the world is greed, and it is out of control and we are all going to pay the price.

We got to get back to the fundamentals. Can we? I think so. We need the crypto guys to save us all. Now there is an honorable profession. I have met a bunch of people over the last few years that they tell me they are working in crypto. I honestly don’t understand what that means. I understand technically what is crypto, but how one makes a career out of this stuff is beyond me. Do you they mean they are trading crypto for a living or are they investing in crpyto oriented businesses? Interestingly, most of the crpyto folk I have chatted to seem like nice guys. I just don’t understand what they do. Not that this matters. As long as they are having fun. Ah. yes, fun. The last two decades have been a ball. I could be wrong, but I think there is a big hangover coming this year. The luck is running out.

Terrorism

The war in Ukraine shows no sign of letting up soon. And this recent missile strike on a shopping mall in central Ukraine is just pure terrorism. What is the difference between this week’s Kremenchuk nightmare and that of 911 in NYC? If this shopping mall happened to have been in America the world would change overnight. No one would have anything to do with Russia ever again. So the fact that Russia still does business with the world is just mind boggling.

Zelensky: Kremenchuk strike ‘one of the most daring terrorist acts in European history.’ President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address that a strike on a mall in the city of Kremenchuk was deliberate and is “one of the most daring terrorist acts in European history.” “Peaceful city, ordinary shopping center, women inside, children, ordinary civilians. This is not a mistaken hit of missiles. This is a planned Russian strike at this shopping center,” Zelensky said.

Russia is over, in my view. The war will end at some point and who will ever do business in Russia again. Who could ever trust them. Yes, many Western firms are still operating in Russia and it is disgusting. But I think a lot of those companies will start to wind down their Russian operations sometime this year. When enough innocent people die things will change. I wonder what that number is … ?!

How the G-7 can tip the scales toward Ukraine

“Moscow’s economy has declined, but Russia’s sales of commodities will keep Vladimir Putin’s regime supplied with the necessities of war for a long time. Ukraine’s productive capacity, on the other hand, has collapsed between 40 to 50 percent. Almost 13 million Ukrainians have fled their homes. Kyiv cannot export most of its harvest to earn foreign currency. The best guesses are that Ukraine needs between $5 billion and $6 billion in assistance each month just to stay afloat. Nevertheless, heroic Ukrainians have managed to maintain basic governmental functions while supporting an army at war.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/26/g7-bavaria-meeting-economic-help-ukraine/

What was the point … ?!

I think I was on Facebook for around 10 years, and Instagram for about 6 years. I certainly had a few laughs. I never really posted anything personal and often would enjoy a few jokes and get some news flashes. But I did have this constant nagging feeling that it was an unhealthy thing, with many dark sides, and that the world would be better off with out it. I never needed social media to be in business or make friends so when Facebook deleted me, I didn’t panic. I did sigh though and wonder about the world we live in. An AI bot must have zapped me because I posted an off kilter joke. Hardly the crime of the century, and considering my intention was to make people laugh, the sentence does seem a bit extreme. But the Zuck knows best, clearly. Now he looks like a guy who can make you laugh.

I have been off social media for 10 days now and I wonder what I actually was doing. I don’t feel I am missing anything. Is Facebook all about ego? Do we all need affirmation all the time? Was I like everyone else? Of course, we all have an ego, and every human being has insecurities. Was Facebook helping me to deal with mine? I am still thinking about this. I am discussing this openly here and I wondering what good came from all the years I was on Facebook. Did I learn a new skill or master a craft? Did I connect with people meaningfully or get closer to someone that is important to me. I don’t think so. Why then do we need these platforms? And are people addicted to these things?

I don’t think I ever showed off on Facebook but I know many people that do. Instagram, for example, is full of pictures of people loving life, in glamorous scenarios. Is this for real? Isn’t this insecurity we are seeing. Maybe I am being a bit cynical here, but I happen to know some people that are flashy on social media and their lives are not a bed of roses. So why all the pretending.

I think the youth are particularly vulnerable as these platforms are designed to be a drug. They figure out ways, with scientific precision, to push youngster’s buttons, and get them hooked. I don’t think it is healthy at all. What ever happened to playing outside and kicking a ball around. Those were good days. And it is all there still, ready for us. But the world is online, sadly, and life is passing by.

I used to use Facebook when on the toilet, waiting in a queue somewhere, and when I wanted to share some movie or work related news. It was a way to drum up support for a project, and even if it was slightly effective, I was convinced that every bit helps. I wonder if it did actually make a difference.

Let’s say I spent 10 to 15 minutes a day on Facebook. This is over an hour a week. That is 4 hours a month. That is two days out of the year. When you think of it like that, that is a lot of time. I would rather spend that time with my family and friends. And the Bunster needs all the time he can get with me.

Facebook certainly did provide some form of entertainment but I much rather prefer sitting back and relaxing with a good movie. But there never seems to be time. Hang on – from my simple calculation above I can watch more movies now. And there’s the thing. If you want to watch a film then go to a cinema or a streaming platform. If you want to read then pick up a book. If you want to laugh then check out a comedian. If you want the news then get a newspaper. We don’t need Facebook.

Have all of us become entertainers? Sit down comedians. Was that me? Is that what social media is about? One thing is for sure, everyone has an opinion on Facebook. Everyone has something to say online and some of it is pretty nasty, so best leave it alone. One could get caught up in an argument with people you hardly know, so quickly, and for what. Rather spend time with people and on things you love. Focus on something you are good at. Master a craft. Do something that adds real value to the world. Posting on Facebook adds nothing to the world.

The thing about technology is that it is meant to help us. And this is the paradox of progress. The more ways we invent to save time the less time we actually have. What value does Facebook add to the world? And it certainly does not save us time, so why do we need it? We are all slaves to technology. We need to control it, and not be controlled by it. We need less electronics in our lives. We need less digital and more analogue. Don’t get me wrong. I did have some fun with Facebook and it had some uses. I will miss seeing Greg on the island and Karl’s jokes were often very sharp. I am amazed he has not been kicked off for some of the things he posts. He has a wicked sense of humour – I like it.

What was the end result of my Facebook journey. Nothing. If you invest time in digital worlds it is very easy to land up with everything being erased, in a second. By an algorithm. Better to build things in the physical world, like real relationships, with real people. If you build a tree house it generally lasts but a virtual place, er, space, can very easily come to an abrupt and confusing end. Hackers can remove you and can cause trouble, and AI algorithms can decide you are not wanted anymore and voila, you are gone.

My closing thought: Perhaps Facebook is one big echo chamber.

PS – I usually posted these kind of jokes on Facebook and Instagram – enjoy.

How Ukraine Will Win

Thankfully for Europe and the United States, Ukraine is fighting this dark force, and it is motivated to keep doing so until it wins. But we cannot succeed alone, and the West must understand the stakes and consequences of our failure. If we lose, there will not just be no more Ukraine; there will be no prosperity or security in Europe.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-06-17/how-ukraine-will-win