Think Ukraine’s Offensive Has Started? Wait for the Heavy Brigades

If the West provides everything the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) need, especially long-range precision weapons, then I still anticipate that Ukraine can liberate Crimea, the decisive terrain of this war, by the end of this summer, that is to say, by the end of August. This is one of the aims of the offensive, I believe.  At that point, the UAF’s long-range precision weapons could reach Sevastopol, Saky, Dzankoy, and other key Crimean targets, and that would allow them to make the peninsula untenable for Russian forces.  That’s why the UK’s delivery of Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles with a range of 155-plus miles, was such an important contribution.

www.cepa.org/article/think-ukraines-offensive-has-started-wait-for-the-heavy-brigades/

A traumatic week

This is spot on : https://kyivindependent.com/stephen-zhao-tepid-response-to-kakhovka-dam-explosion-paves-way-for-nuclear-disaster/

It is so disgusting. The world does very little to punish Russia. Instead they debate everything, like Russia has a point. Russia has no point of view – they started this evil war, for no reason, and could end it tomorrow, but instead, they only unleash more and more terror, and the world just debates and debates. It is disturbing and pathetic. Imagine if there was another crises in the world that arises. Actually, we have already seen that, with the pandemic, and that was one big mess globally.

“Unless Moscow faces clear consequences from the international community, Ukraine will soon see an even bigger disaster on a nuclear scale.”

The fact that the world’s media companies have headlines along the lines of “Ukraine accuses Russia of blowing up the dam” is evidence of how mad the world is. Russia did it. They blew up the dam. They started this unprovoked war. They are evil. Why does the media give this a moment of doubt. Why does any world leader ask this ridiculous question. Who else did it … aliens from outer space?!

As one person posted on Twitter: you are experiencing the worst man-made disaster in your country since Chornobyl fighting the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War, but the leading discussion is: we don’t know who could have done it, we have no ideas, it must be nature itself.

What does the United Nations do exactly … ? Not much from we can all see. What a joke. And the fact that Russia is a part of this sham is just insane.

Sorry if I sound strange. It has been a traumatic week, once again, with no end in sight. From my perspective, and yes, I cannot be objective here, the world is just watching this nightmare unfold. Zelensky begs and begs and begs, and yes, he does get help, but not enough. The fact that even has to beg, and to such a degree, is just ridiculous. There is an evil force at large in the world, and global leaders are telling Ukraine “Don’t do this, and don’t do that.” WTF ?! Just help them stop this evil once and for all.

Poland is next …

We have been in Wroclaw now for over a month. We like it here. But our dream is to return to our home in magical Kyiv. We believe Ukraine will win the war and that we will be able to go back to Kyiv, but we don’t know when this will be.

I have met quite a few dads in the apartment complex we are in. Warm, kind folk. The Bunster is the ultimate networker. Most of these folk I have met work in IT and speak English. Of course, the subject of Ukraine and the war comes up. One out of three people in the city are from Ukraine, so yes, Ukraine and Poland have become closer. Poland is Ukraine’s biggest champion from what I understand. And I am sure that all Ukrainians are very grateful.

What is interesting is when we chat about Poland’s support of Ukraine. All the dads I have chatted to have the same perspective, “We have to help Ukraine.” Do they like Ukraine … ? Perhaps. I am sure many do. But they have to support Ukraine. And they all have the same conclusion, “If Ukraine falls, we are next.” I believe this to be true as well. No one here wants Russia on their border. It is a sobering and scary situation.

No one here believe that Ukraine will lose, but still there is a fear that things may still get even more crazy. Anything is possible. These are very dangerous times.

Questions, questions

This is a genuine Bunster question. Was an easy one to answer. The Uber was a couple of minutes away. We have been Ubering quite a bit in Wroclaw since we arrived.

Another genuine Bunster question. I wish I had an answer though …

Ukraine will win – that is their destiny

Kyiv has had 9 missile attacks this month so far. Beyond intense and totally evil.

Timothy Snyder describes the situation brilliantly :

We have to work to preserve the concepts needed to characterize Russian behavior even as the Russian state strives to make them meaningless.  It is certainly terrorism to launch missiles and drones at a city.  What if, for no reason at all, the United States launched ballistic missiles at Toronto?  Certainly this would be terrorism, among many other things.

And what if American leaders and propagandists, in this hypothetical scenario, gave senseless reasons for such an action?  What if they claimed that Canadians and Americans were actually one people, and that Canadians who did not realize this had to be killed?  That the U.S.-Canadian border was illegitimate because of Joe Biden’s personal views about the past?  That English speakers in Canada needed to be united with their true American homeland? That Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau was a Nazi?

The day after these latest missile attacks, though, there was less to “celebrate,” since all of the Russian missiles and drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defense.  The noise woke up the city of Kyiv, but not one of the Russian missiles or drones reached its target.  Kyivans have to live with the knowledge that Moscow wants them dead, but they also know that they are being defended.  Of course it is good for Ukraine when its citizens are protected.  But they should not be attacked in the first place.

First impressions

We have been in Wroclaw for just over a week. We stayed in a hotel for the first 3 nights that was in the heart of the old town. On Monday on the first of this month we moved into a rented apartment. It is about a 20 minute walk from where we are now to that hotel – we are pretty close the old town centre. The flat is cosy and modern and we were lucky to have found this place. It is a modest sized flat so finding a quiet corner is a bit of a challenge as the wild Bunster is all over the place, running up and down. We spent a lot of time Ubering to shops this week as we needed to buy a bunch of stuff: kettle, microwave oven, towels, blankets, kitchen stuff, etc. We still have a bit of a list left. The one Uber driver was from Belarus. A warm, young man called Leo. We chatted with him in English and Russian. He said he cannot go back home to his country. I imagine there are many young people here with a similar story.

It has not been an easy week, but all is ok. The flight over here from Johannesburg was pretty tiring as the Bunster kept us on our toes. I guess settling in at a new place is never a walk in the park and I assume anyone who has moved to a foreign land always struggles a bit to find their feet. I thought more people would speak English here, from what I have experienced so far, and this creates some extra adventure. We wanted to try and buy some English kids books for the Bunster but the only place to get these apparently is online. This also was a small learning curve – from what people tell us it is best to order from Amazon Germany because it is in the EU and therefore works smoothly. If you order from Amazon UK, for example, then there are things like customs/duties that you need to deal with – admin and paperwork on the Polish side and not in English so best to avoid this for now. There is also an Amazon Poland site but it does not have an English option – the Amazon Germany site let’s you toggle to English. On Sundays the shops are closed – that I did not expect. But I reckon it is a good thing. You see couriers all over the place and we have already had a few Amazon packages delivered to our new flat – it works well. My gut feeling is that online shopping here is like in Kyiv … the norm.

The city is pretty and clean and you see children and dogs everywhere. It seems like a good place for families. I am amazed at how many people we have seen with dogs in the apartment complex we are in. There are bicycle lanes all over and we have heard the city is very eco-friendly. The sign of a modern, forward-thinking place. When we throw out the garbage, for example, there are different trash places for paper and for plastic. So far most of the shops we have been to only use paper bags – no sign of plastic packets. The city appears quite flat and this is probably why bicycles are seen in every direction as well as e-scooters. I took the Bunster on a short flip on a Bolt e-scooter – that was cool. He looked a bit nervous but held on like a champ. The other thing we noticed, well, the Bunster pointed it out, is that there are a lot of sirens blaring each day/night. Like you hear in New York city. Not sure what that is all about. What’s with the sirens?! Do the words “Poland” and “Police” have a connection … ok ok, that is a silly joke.

When I went to get some t-shirts at an H&M in the one mall and I was paying at the cashier on the credit card terminal there was an option on the screen for “donate to Ukraine”. This made my soul smile. There are a lot of Ukrainians here – we see and hear Ukrainians everywhere. Poland has been good to Ukraine during this evil war.

There is a Hard Rock Café in the old town centre. As one friend in America said to me, “You know you’re in a civilized society when there is a Hard Rock Café.” Yeah, it does feel pretty civilized here. It feels like a “safe” place to be, which is ironic considering there is a war raging on across the border.

The city looks well maintained and organized. It certainly has a lot of charm. There are many foreigners strolling about in the old town centre. Germans, Americans and Brits seem to be the biggest group of visitors. Looks like it could be fun place to spend a weekend with some mates. The city appears full of young people. Yeah, there is a youthful and student like feel about the place. There is construction wherever you look and it seems like the entire city is being built all at once. But this is an old, historical city … something interesting is underway for sure. We need more time to absorb this all. But something positive is definitely going on here. All this construction looks like a very big hint.

We ate at a few restaurants. Two good meals so far, one pretty good, and one average. We also ordered some take-out on Uber eats. One good find and one not so inspiring. The supermarket down the road from us (literally a 4 minute walk) is ok. We did also take an Uber to a more fancy supermarket and that was quite good. But there is no Woolies here. We miss Woolies. Nowhere in the world is there something like Woolies. I always find that hard to understand. You can be in the richest parts of America, for example, and still, no Woolies. Kyiv has Good Wine which is also something unique in the world. We miss that a lot. Will be there again soon.

The online weather forecast says it is going to rain all of next week. That is going to be a challenge with the Bunster. But my other thought is, which was inspired by a comment another friend made: imagine living in a time not so long ago where we did not have Google and did not worry about things like the weather next week. When this war is over I am going offline – I am pretty sure of it.