I am sitting here in what Marta and I call the Bear Office, in the Nest in Kyiv. It is good to be at home. We are busy working on the film. It is almost coming to a close, and I am happy to say that the film has turned out so beautiful.

Film making is an art. And like all art there is a big difference between making art and selling art. When the film is ready soon we will try and pitch it to a streamer (like Netflix) and if the film is excellent there is a chance they will take it. If it is good they won’t take it – it needs to be way better than good. I think we are in with a very good chance.

This journey started in 2018 and has been an intense labour of love. Of course, everyone is a film maker these days. I mean, everyone who puts up videos on YouTube. My one friend who is a proper film maker says to me a few weeks ago that there is a difference between film making and content creation. He said YouTube is about content creators and film making is something different. I was thinking about this difference. The difference is time. YouTube videos are often put together in a day. This project has taken has 5 years and it will go into year 6 soon.

It is like a blogger compared to an author who writes books. Yes, they both write but one writes content, typically quickly, and the other could spend a long time writing a book. Or a professional photographer compared to someone who is an influencer on Instagram. It takes time to write, develop and make a film. It takes time to write a solid book. It takes a chef time to create something amazing but it takes a few minutes to make a fast food burger.

This blog piece, for example, is content, and not some great literary work.

Time is about analogue. And being quick is about digital. That is my view.

I prefer old school. I prefer analogue. I prefer life. Life is not about online. To live, is to go offline.

I remember the spirit in Kyiv at the time of Maidan. Change was in the air. And in the years that followed there was a boom in just about everything. Creativity peaked, entrepreneurship was rocking, and Ukraine was on an exciting path, with all its challenges and problems. Then, in 2019, Mr. Zelensky was elected as president, and one thing was for sure: Ukraine is a true democracy and freedom of speech is fundamental. The Russian war in Ukraine is all about this. Russia is not a democracy, has no free speech, and is simply a big petrol station with nuclear weapons. Ukraine is about progress and the future. Russia is the opposite.

https://kyivindependent.com/how-ukrainian-identity-evolved-since-euromaidan/

Despite the challenges faced in the decade following the Revolution of Dignity, also known as the EuroMaidan Revolution, Ukrainian identity has coalesced around a robust civic society and a cultural renaissance that has provided strength and resilience in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.

Not only has Ukrainian identity embarked on a transformative journey since then, but so has European identity itself.

Here in Poland anyone you speak to has the story: If Ukraine falls (which I don’t believe will happen) Poland is next. And if you say something like “but they are part of NATO so they will be ok” then you are mistaken. Putin is just warming up, and his alliances with other dictators is expanding. He will keep testing the West to see how far he can push things. He does not just hate Ukraine, he hates the Western world, and all it represents. He is pure evil and will not stop at Ukraine. If Putin attacks Estonia, for example, do you think America will suddenly send troops to fight with Russians on the ground … I don’t think so.

Ukraine is fighting a war in Europe, for Europe. Ukraine needs to win this war. That is central to Europe’s security, and the free world.

In two weeks time I will be in Kyiv, at our home there. Kyiv is calm at the moment, but everyone is waiting for the next big missile attack on the infrastructure. Russia will try make Ukraine freeze again this winter. Ukraine needs more support from the West. All the support it can get. To me it seems obvious but for some reason, America, for example, is not sure. If Ukraine does not win this war the cost to America, and the world, will be way way higher.

Prof. Snyder wrote this in one of his newsletters about a month ago: After more than a year and a half of war, it can be hard to imagine it ending. And yet it can, and will. The Ukrainians can win this war, provided that we do not let them down. What they cannot do is constantly remind us how important the war is. We have do some of that work for ourselves.

We were in the UK last week and spent some time with friends in Windsor. One afternoon we were walking around the center, along the main high street, and the sun was out. Everything looked charming and warm. It was almost picture perfect. So many people milling about, from all walks of life. A melting pot that is said to represent the civilized world. Yes, all felt good and inviting.

We were grabbing a bite at an eating spot. Feeding the Bunster is always a challenge, and we had our work cut out for us. A “Free Palestine” protest march passed us by a few times. There must have been around 150 to 200 people I am guessing. When we were leaving our Bunster feed the protestors were winding down and packing up. I was looking at this group of people. They looked like everyone else in the city. Nicely dressed, with some fancy handbags, iPhones, Starbucks coffee cups, etc. In short, we all looked and felt the same.

This group of protestors did not look down and out and they did not look evil or dangerous. They simply hate Jews. They could just walk around shouting “we hate Jews”. No need to say “Free Palestine”. They just hate Jews. That is the sense I got.

Where does this hatred come from? That is a bigger discussion and I am not sure I am qualified to answer this question.

I do have my take on the world at large and I maintain that the next world war will be between the “haves” and the “have nots”. Greed is the biggest disease in our world today. There are many greedy Jewish people in the world (I know some of them) and there are many greedy people from other religions too. Greed is not a Jewish thing – it is a problem all across the globe. My simple view is that for some reason the blame for all this greed is placed largely on the Jewish population. It is very sad and disturbing and it looks like we learn nothing from history.

If you are reading this you are online somewhere, somehow. It means you use a computer or a mobile phone, and that you have Internet access. I think it is safe to say that digital technology is a big part of just about everyone’s life. And there is good and bad to this wired world.

Each technical advancement in the world was meant to do one thing: save us time. But yet, no one seems to have any time anymore. We are all so busy checking mails, sending texts, reading news, commenting on social media, etc. I am sure it was not meant to be like this. I am guessing that the masses are controlled by the technology, and not the other war round.

When the Russian war in Ukraine is over, I am going offline proper. I am sure glad I went to university at a time when social media did not exist. The thing about the online world is that everyone has opinion, and this is what is messing up and dividing the world. As my one friend was saying to me this week, only people with knowledge of something would have a valued opinion. Most of the planet should not have a soapbox to air their destructive and damaging views. It is easy for evil to influence the masses with a platform that so many people are connected to. Twitter is a case in point.

And then, there is the good side of tech. I received a letter in the post box here at our apartment in Wroclaw from the Polish post office. It is about some paperwork they are asking for in connection with some magic stuff and a few toys I bought online in the UK for the Bunster. But the letter is in Polish. How come they did not email me is a fair question, but ok, I got the physical letter and voila, Google translator to the rescue. Marta did some digital wizardry on her phone and voila, the letter is now in a PDF on my laptop, in English. All in the few seconds.

Yeah, this is like magic, and for sure, it saves us time and makes our lives easier/better. But as for social media, what started out as a fun idea, has become toxic and dangerous. And it just wastes a lot of time.

Is this progress?

I was texting with a friend of mine in America yesterday. He shared with me his perspective which I wrote up here. One thing we both reckon, there are some much tougher times coming in 2024.

In America one can make a 5.5% guaranteed return on bonds, so why would a person invest in the stock market which is risky and volatile. And this thinking is why stock prices have dropped so significantly.

From what I understand around half the stock market is propped up by a bunch of big tech stocks, like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla and Alphabet (Google). If one of these were to come off, it would have a big affect on the overall market. I am no expert here, so I could be wrong.

America is now spending more on interest repayments than they spend on the military, say, and old < 1% bonds are maturing and being replaced with 5.5% bonds. America can’t afford the interest, so what do they do? They borrow more money in the form of new bonds to pay for the existing ones. And so expenses keep going up, but Congress refuses to raise taxes, so the deficit keeps growing.

This scheme of borrowing from future productivity worked in the past, but it only works if the economy keeps growing faster than the debt interest. The economy isn’t growing fast enough any more so things are volatile. And interest rates are going to keep going up until Inflation is tamed and that still hasn’t happened. Also, fewer people are paying taxes. The IRS have said they were “surprised” at how little they made in the last year. So many people have retired early. Or died.

My take on it, as always, is that greed has led to this point. Why are the taxes of the rich not raised, for example? It is well publicized that during the pandemic the rich got much richer and the masses needed all kinds of aid to stay afloat.

And then there is this maniac – if he becomes President of America again I think the world will wobble big time. This lunatic has divided America and he is angry and vengeful. God help us all if becomes the President again.

No one would have believed
In the last years of the nineteenth century
That human affairs were being watched from the timeless worlds of space
No one could have dreamed that we were being scrutinized
As someone with a microscope studies creatures that swarm and multiply in a drop of water
Few men even considered the possibility of life on other planets
And yet, across the gulf of space
Minds immeasurably superior to ours
Regarded this Earth with envious eyes
And slowly and surely, they drew their plans against us

This is from the opening of Jeff Wayne’s Musical Version of The War of the Worlds. I have the vinyl records somewhere in the cupboard and I also have a couple of sets of the CDs. This opening text was narrated by Richard Burton. A creative masterpiece. And yes, no one wants to believe that our free world could be attacked. That evil wants to burn it down to the ground. And this is what is happening right now. We don’t have to wait for Mars.

Ukraine, Israel and South Africa are at war. Tragically, SA has statistics for a country at war. The murder rate is insane and violence is a way of life. It is very very sad. And then there are bombs, tanks, canons, and guns firing non-stop in Ukraine, and now, we have the same devastation unfolding in Israel. Evil is spreading. I will bet that WW III is not far away.

How did the world get to this point?! Sure, there is a lot of evil out there, and it appears to be spreading. But I don’t believe that the masses are evil. The reality is that there are some twisted and unhinged leaders and dictators on our planet. Like that madman from North Korea, who has nuclear weapons. I would not be surprised if Kim Jong Un attacked South Korea, who doesn’t have nuclear weapons.

Corruption and perverted capitalism are the seeds of this evil. That is what I believe. Taken to new levels by people like Trump, Putin, etc. But it is not just these mumsers, it is everywhere, including in Israel, which is now in all the news. Israel took its eye off the ball. They have their own corruption, greed and in-fighting to deal with, and they were fast asleep as to the real problems. Greed sits at the center of all of this. This is what I believe too.

Greedy, corrupt, selfish people have brought us to this point. Sadly, I don’t believe there is a solution. I can’t see the greedy suddenly become a whole lot kinder en masse. And all this money making and taking, has left America, for example, weak. The selfishness is peaking and so is the lack of compassion. This is probably why America is so divided. It was easy for a lunatic like Trump to stir up the neglected masses. And the same goes for many other parts of the world. Russia, on the other hand, is more about brainwashing, but for sure, the masses there have so little to lose, so little self-respect. It is easy for a madman like Putin to fire them up. And if they don’t comply they simply get sent to Siberia.

Don’t get me wrong. I am selfish too. We are all selfish. But there are levels that most won’t go beyond. Unfortunately, it only takes a few with power to push us over the edge.

America used to set the pace in the world. Not anymore. Their inward focus and weakness is clear to China and to Russia. Putin, for example, is constantly seeing how far he can push things. And he will keep on taking chances. And by doing so, it is giving other dictators the confidence to also try get away with evil. Hamas is an example of evil that saw weakness and made its move.

I believe war is on Europe’s doorstep. If Ukraine falls, God forbid, then WW III will be upon us. But it could also start somewhere else. North Korea may be the catalyst. Or perhaps China will invade Taiwan. Who knows any more. But anything is possible.

In Ukraine the people there are most likely mentally equipped for WW III. I think the same goes for Israel. And I would argue, in South Africa too. Phew, I am therefore very well prepared. But Americans, for example, are not. They are fast asleep, in my view. They spend their time on so much rubbish. Just turn on the news any day of the week. The writing is on the wall.

My friend Guy wrote this text. It is highly compelling.

The Israeli connection to China’s World domination 

As the world watches what happens in Israel, many would like it to seem like a Hamas / Israel conflict. The simple truth carries a much larger global impact.

My abilities and training always were around understanding trends and movements. Those far from the naked eye. The “whys” most people won’t take the time to ask or understand.

For years I have been monitoring the situation in Israel. For the last 2 years, like most of the world, I’ve been monitoring the situation in Ukraine. And living in South Africa for nearly 15 years motivated me to understand the way of China. 

And you know what? It all connects. I will work backwards to connect these threads:

Israel and Hamas: Hamas is funded and fueled by Iran who also finances Hezbollah and not only helped plan, but last week “green lighted” the attack on Israel. This conflict has gone on for years under the public guise to wipe Israel from the face of this earth under religious fanaticism. As all hate fueled conflict, fanaticism is the veil of those who seek power to manipulate those who embrace it.

Here is another:

Ukraine and Russia: One dictator decides he wants the old USSR to come to life. He wants to create another empire. He believes he can do it. The West knows that Ukraine is strategic to Europe. We will come back to that, with a broader China-Russia context. 

And yet another one. The crazy one: 

North Korea: They have nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Un threatens the East: Japan and Taiwan. But is also threatened by democracy and American capitalism. 

Of course, then there are BRICS: (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), an economic force currently that is challenging America. BRICS is a powerful alliance as it dominates 3 of the world’s continent with a massive emphasis in Asia and are all challenged by democracy. 

When you look at all of four elements, the one common denominator that ties them together on all fronts is China.

On the BRICS front, all countries apart from China have very low credit ratings, which makes it very difficult for them to borrow dollar-based money. The interest rates are high. So, they turn to China who can lend them in Yuan or even grant them cash without much impact. In return, China holds them to an economical dependency, or economical ransom. These countries must abide to China’s wishes through financial pressures that they apply. The result is control on major resources around the world: mining, infrastructure, power, food and water with minimal investment or risk.

On the other front you have China, Iran, Russia and North Korea. I have decided to coin them as CIRN. 

While BRICS is an economics alliance, CIRN is an alliance of chaos and unrest. 

The Chinese continues to influence and manipulate the other 3 countries by supporting and embellishing to their strengths and their desires while fueling their fears.

Putin wants his empire. Iran wants Islamic dominance in the Middle East, which requires the elimination of Israel / Zionism. And North Korea, well, this guy is a bit on the crazy side but will only continue to hold power as a totalitarian dictator.

CIRN is an interesting alliance. More like a suicide squad consisting of the bully, the fanatics, the crazy and the diplomats, China. In CIRN, China keeps their hands clean and lets the rest cause noise and damage. 

Does China hate Israel. Of course not. Do they hate Ukraine, of course not. Do they care about these countries. Of course not. 

Do they care about BRICS and CIRN? Yes, for as long as they serve their purpose of global economic and political destabilization while strengthening China. 

And that brings me to the point where I believe this all connects. 

For a long while China has wanted to demolish the American dominance in the world. They have mentioned, more than once, that the dependency on the dollar is an issue (I would agree but it is a topic for another time). They want to challenge the status quo and create an economy that is based on Yuan. 

And they know what they’re doing. In simple terms, the West feels it can play chess with China while China plays Go with them. And they are likely to win. 

China has 3 milestones it wants to achieve:

1. Disruption of American influence
2. Disruption of world economy and democracy
3. Financial gains in the short and the long runs

The easy targets to achieve these goals are Ukraine, Israel, South Africa, Taiwan and Brazil. These countries drag the US, UN, and NATO into conflicts that make them spend resources like money, food, energy while stilting innovation and distracts the westernized world from Chinese ambition. 

They are also benefiting from American investments that can be damaged if they misplay their hands (cyber being one of those through the different groups in CIRN).

So, we have here a master puppeteer that pulls so many strings at the same time, playing Go “the long game”, with one agenda in mind: create a world independent from the dollar and any American influence, wanting to create a new world order as the only global superpower. 

Don’t get me wrong, the American way has many weaknesses and has many caveats, some of which I simply don’t like. Years of unrest in various regions for profiteering or bumbling even the best of intentions. But I prefer this way any day, any time, than one of Chinese world order. 

In my humble opinion, if the world stands a chance to stop to China’s plans, they must win the Indians’ and Saudis’ hearts and minds. Especially as the US has lost its influence over Africa and still spends a fortune of time and money on Pakistan / Afghanistan foreign matters, which are a mere diversion in China’s global plan.

The world is suffering from major unrest due to one major master puppeteer disrupting economies and peace – China. And Israel is just one of 5 of them being the manipulated and now, attacked. 

Oh, if you are religious (I am) the days of Gog and Magog and Armageddon are here. And if you like other prophecies, Nostradamus mentioned that the next world war would be between the East and the West. It looks like we are about to have both…

If we stand a chance, we must have ruthless accountability and if we seek the larger picture, it becomes obvious that this attack has much larger global implications.

This text from Prof. Timothy Synder is simply brilliant. Terror and counter-terror. A reflection on Hamas and Israel.

I want to share a thought about terror and counter-terror, prompted by the Hamas attacks and the dilemmas Israel faces.  It is not based on regional knowledge but does draw from scholarly work on the politics of terror and insurgency.  It is not so much a take on specific events as a general reminder of the larger shape such events can take.

For the victim, terror is about what it is. For the terrorist, it is about what happens next.

Terror can be a weapon of the weak, designed to get the strong to use their strength against themselves.  Terrorists know what they are going to do, and have an idea what will follow. They mean to create an emotional situation where self-destructive action seems like the urgent and only choice.

When you have been terrorized, the argument that I am making seems absurd; the terrorists can seem to you to be raving beasts who just need punishment.

Yet however horrible the crime, it usually does not bespeak a lack of planning. Usually part of the plan is to enrage.

Americans have fallen for this. 9/11 was a successful terrorist attack because we made it so.  Regardless of whether or not its planners and perpetrators lived to see this, it achieved its main goal: to weaken the United States.  Without 9/11, the United States presumably would not have invaded Iraq, a decision which led to the death of tens of thousands of people, helped fund the rise of China, weakened international law, and undid American credibility. 9/11 was a contributing cause to American decisions that caused far more death than 9/11 itself did. But the point here is that 9/11 facilitated American decisions that hurt America far more than 9/11 itself did.

On 9/13/2001, I dropped my planned lecture on east European history and spoke entirely about terror and counter-terror, along these lines. I was worried, but did not imagine then just how well the provocation would work. The invasion of Iraq was a disaster that arose from many sources; but one of them was the logic of terror — and indeed its exploitation by people who wanted a war in Iraq anyway.

In evaluating what Hamas has done, it is important to remember that the atrocious crimes are not (or are not only) ends in themselves.  They are utterly horrible and deserving of every condemnation, but they are not mindless. Unlike Israelis, who are shocked and feel they must urgently act, Hamas has been working out this scenario for years. The people carrying out the bestial crimes follow a plan that anticipates an Israeli reaction. 

Classically, a terrorist provokes a state in order to generate so much suffering among his own people that they will take the terrorist’s side indefinitely.

I won’t claim to know what Hamas expects from Israel, nor what Israel should do.  That would be a matter for people with the languages and expertise to read and analyze the documents and the data. My point is that it is always worth asking, in such situations, whether you are following the terrorist’s script. If what you want to do is what your enemy wants you to do, someone is mistaken.  It might be your enemy.  But it also might be you. 

PS.  I am conscious that the cool tone of this thread might seem jarring in the context of human suffering.  I regret this.

PPS. I anticipate the objection that Israeli state policy has been designed to provoke Palestinians. I agree that the strong can also terrorize the weak.

I did not believe that Elon Musk actually put this out there, and then I went online to look for myself and there it was. How can someone be this miserable, this clueless and so lacking in class.

Just because someone is rich does not mean they are decent. It is such a sad world we live in. What has happened to humanity?!

Is this fool really so desperate for attention. It is truly mind boggling that someone of this sort of influence will post something like this.

My one friend in the US text’d me this a few moments ago, “What’s almost more disgusting is the 256,000 likes. He’s become super right wing. It’s a very right wing thing to be anti-Ukraine right now.”

This is making my stomach turn.

I got a bunch of comments from some friends this morning and I am updating this short blog post. Sounds like no one in Ukraine will be buying a Tesla car after this. My friends in Kyiv are all disgusted.

“He’s just upset that Ukraine is getting more taxpayers money than Tesla is. He is the king of subsidy sucking so ironically that meme is really about him.”

“It’s interesting that it’s taken this amount of money to show who he really is.”

“What an idiot. He has shown his true colours. Totally disgusting!!”

“This guy has no boundaries and no moral code.”