Putin is already at war with Europe. There is only one way to stop him

“Intent on inflicting maximum disruption, Putin openly menaces the heartlands of European democracy. The writing is on the wall and may no longer be ignored. Enough of the half-measures and the dithering! Nato should act now to force Putin’s marauding troops back inside Russia’s recognised borders.

It’s not only Ukraine that requires saving. It’s Europe, too.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/17/putin-is-already-at-war-with-europe-there-is-only-one-way-to-stop-him

Bunster in the bush

We spent 10 days at a game reserve in Albertina and it was a very cool experience. Marta always wanted to go on “safari” and for the Bunster it was a whole new world once again. But this was not any safari, this is a place with a close family connection. Below is a paragraph from their in-room welcome pack:

“Garden Route Game Lodge is the realisation of a dream of come true for owners, the Doherty and Apteker families. Started in 1999, Garden Route Game Lodge became the first private game reserve in the Western Cape and Garden Route Region to offer big game viewing safaris.”

I highly recommend this destination. I can’t believe it took this mad war to bring us here, and of course, my brother’s kind embrace. Thank you Lon. And thank you Anthony. Everyone looked after us so well, and even the animals seemed to be on their best behaviour. Yeah, it was a welcomed change. Feeding the elephants was a treat and the game drives were cool. Here is the web site : https://grgamelodge.co.za/

We met many of the guests. So many foreigners from all over the globe. Saudi Arabia, America, Germany, Ireland, Israel … and also, lots of locals. The Bunster is the ultimate ice breaker, and with all the other toddlers around he honed in on new friends at every opportunity. We met many parents and everyone was enjoying the experience. A lot of people were repeat customers.

The food was fantastic. I put on some weight for sure – I better go easy for a while. The deserts were seriously amazing and the breakfasts were just too cool. The accommodation offers 3 types of rooms and each one has its charms. There is a curio shop at the main reception and the Bunster is a top customer. They had a collection of small toy cars and the Bun man is clearly a shopper.

This was a silver living to the mad war in Ukraine. A time for a new experience and a time for family. The Bun’s youngest cousin, Aras, was also with us, and he was a champion. He turned out to be a pretty decent baby sitter and the Bun was loving every minute of “Aya”. My dad and stepmom also joined us for a couple of days, and it was all good for the soul. The only thing that got us back to reality was the load shedding, and of course, the war, which were both non-stop. They have a big generator so the lights do stay on, most of the time. A reminder that we are in SA. Ukraine is at war and yet in Kyiv the electricity does not go off.

You can’t kick the can much further

Over 20 years ago we made an indie film called Purpose. We were trying to explore the connection between making money and making a difference. Entrepreneurs, I believe, are driven by passion and excitement to do something that they feel people will want and value. And when they get it right, they make money. Sometimes though, people forget the mission and focus only on the bottom line. These become poor businesses, even if they make buckets of cash.

Fast forward to the pandemic and the money printing extravaganza that took place over those two years, and today the world is in a situation where inflation is sky rocketing and the markets are anxious. This is the age of the day traders and the Bitcoin gurus. No one wants to work any more. Speculating, er, gambling, seems to be the the new norm. There are still are entrepreneurs out there, breaking ground, but so much bad product comes to market, especially in the tech world. This is largely because of venture capital funds that fuel these half-baked ideas. Too many things are rushed to market with unicorn tinted goggles. Purpose has taken a back seat. Profits don’t even seem to be important. Grow and flip. Who cares about the foundations. Financial engineering is the name of the game because the fundamentals are not that evident any more.

The subprime mortgage crises which erupted around 2008 in the US was never dealt with head on. Just a few slaps on the wrist and the can got kicked down the road. That mess contributed to the rapid rise in American home prices and it was the start of some serious bad shit. At some point though someone has to pay the price for all this greed. I reckon this has been on the cards for a while and it is about to come and bite us all in the ass. A serious reckoning is coming. I am surprised it has taken this long, but it is coming. I am pretty convinced of it.

There are still the constant crazy tech evaluations based on high earnings multiples. It feels like there is a big bubble that is set to deflate. I am not sure about burst, but this party can’t go on forever. The money printing has stopped, and the inflation we are experiencing globally is intense. From food prices to fuel to just about everything. It is hurting the masses.

The war in Ukraine, which makes me very sad, is a catalyst in this perfect storm. There is a lack of unity in the West and weak leadership. And dictators are having a field day. Putin has spurred them all on. The war in Ukraine may have dropped off your social media feed but what we are starting to see is that food prices and energy costs are going up and up. And this affects everyone. There are some very tough times coming to the world. The pandemic was a walk in the park. The biggest disease in the world is greed, and it is out of control and we are all going to pay the price.

We got to get back to the fundamentals. Can we? I think so. We need the crypto guys to save us all. Now there is an honorable profession. I have met a bunch of people over the last few years that they tell me they are working in crypto. I honestly don’t understand what that means. I understand technically what is crypto, but how one makes a career out of this stuff is beyond me. Do you they mean they are trading crypto for a living or are they investing in crpyto oriented businesses? Interestingly, most of the crpyto folk I have chatted to seem like nice guys. I just don’t understand what they do. Not that this matters. As long as they are having fun. Ah. yes, fun. The last two decades have been a ball. I could be wrong, but I think there is a big hangover coming this year. The luck is running out.

Terrorism

The war in Ukraine shows no sign of letting up soon. And this recent missile strike on a shopping mall in central Ukraine is just pure terrorism. What is the difference between this week’s Kremenchuk nightmare and that of 911 in NYC? If this shopping mall happened to have been in America the world would change overnight. No one would have anything to do with Russia ever again. So the fact that Russia still does business with the world is just mind boggling.

Zelensky: Kremenchuk strike ‘one of the most daring terrorist acts in European history.’ President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address that a strike on a mall in the city of Kremenchuk was deliberate and is “one of the most daring terrorist acts in European history.” “Peaceful city, ordinary shopping center, women inside, children, ordinary civilians. This is not a mistaken hit of missiles. This is a planned Russian strike at this shopping center,” Zelensky said.

Russia is over, in my view. The war will end at some point and who will ever do business in Russia again. Who could ever trust them. Yes, many Western firms are still operating in Russia and it is disgusting. But I think a lot of those companies will start to wind down their Russian operations sometime this year. When enough innocent people die things will change. I wonder what that number is … ?!

How the G-7 can tip the scales toward Ukraine

“Moscow’s economy has declined, but Russia’s sales of commodities will keep Vladimir Putin’s regime supplied with the necessities of war for a long time. Ukraine’s productive capacity, on the other hand, has collapsed between 40 to 50 percent. Almost 13 million Ukrainians have fled their homes. Kyiv cannot export most of its harvest to earn foreign currency. The best guesses are that Ukraine needs between $5 billion and $6 billion in assistance each month just to stay afloat. Nevertheless, heroic Ukrainians have managed to maintain basic governmental functions while supporting an army at war.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/26/g7-bavaria-meeting-economic-help-ukraine/